Indian scientists construct a model to estimate the consequence of interventions on COVID-19
The model conveys an understanding of how to obtain control over the trajectory of the virus and match the availability of health care This model, named INDSCI-SIM, is the first reported, State-specific, epidemiological, compartmental model for COVID-19 made in India. The model can compare the consequences of numerous non-pharmaceutical interventions â€” such as various types of lockdowns, quarantines and widened testing â€” in modifying the trajectory of the pandemic.
How model was constructed ?
â€œOur results underline the need for more broad-based testing as the only long-term solution to stopping the disease in its tracks. The ability to estimate hospital bed and critical care requirements is one important feature of our model,â€ said Professor Menon. The work was very intensive. Given that we had to work under lockdown conditions, there were emails and frequent virtual meetings,â€ said Pinaki Chaudhuri from the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Chennai, one of the nine people who collaborated on the effort. â€œThis model can be used not just for COVID-19, but for any future epidemics, too. We plan to have a district projection and age specific projections out by a week or so,â€ he added.
â€œThe secret of a good model is to capture all the details that are relevant to understanding the spread of the disease. INDSCI-SIM accomplishes that,â€ said Gautam Menon of The Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Chennai, and Asoka University, Delhi, who is one of the people who developed the model. Scientists from Chennai, Pune, Bengaluru, Delhi and Goa have come together to construct a model that can help predict conclusions of COVID-19 under distinct techniques.